Author: Jose Manuel Rodriguez Llanes; Rafael Castro Delgado; Morten Gram Pedersen; Pedro Arcos Gonzalez; Matteo Meneghini
Title: Confronting COVID-19: Surging critical care capacity in Italy Document date: 2020_4_6
ID: fpp8osgs_22
Snippet: We estimated, by using a SIQR model combined with robust daily ICU rates, the surge capacity of critical care (i.e., ICU beds) required in Italy exclusively for COVID-19 patients. In doing so, we considered five different scenarios (two positive and three negative) after last measures were enforced by the government on 22 March 2020. Under one plausible positive scenarios (similar to the Chinese case, so ambitious), in which R0 is pushed substant.....
Document: We estimated, by using a SIQR model combined with robust daily ICU rates, the surge capacity of critical care (i.e., ICU beds) required in Italy exclusively for COVID-19 patients. In doing so, we considered five different scenarios (two positive and three negative) after last measures were enforced by the government on 22 March 2020. Under one plausible positive scenarios (similar to the Chinese case, so ambitious), in which R0 is pushed substantially below 1 (0·71), the number of daily active confirmed cases will peak at 88 800 by 10-11 of April and the total number of intensive care beds exclusively dedicated to COVID-19 patients would be then estimated at 8791 beds for the entire country.
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