Dynamical characterization of antiviral effects in COVID-19

Abuin, Pablo; Anderson, Alejandro; Ferramosca, Antonio; Hernandez-Vargas, Esteban A.; Gonzalez, Alejandro H.

Mathematical models describing SARS-CoV-2 dynamics and the corresponding immune responses in patients with COVID-19 can be critical to evaluate possible clinical outcomes of antiviral treatments. In this work, based on the concept of virus spreadability in the host, antiviral effectiveness thresholds are determined to establish whether or not a treatment will be able to clear the infection. In addition, the virus dynamic in the host – including the time-to-peak and the final monotonically decreasing behavior – is characterized as a function of the time to treatment initiation. Simulation results, based on nine patient data, show the potential clinical benefits of a treatment classification according to patient critical parameters. This study is aimed at paving the way for the different antivirals being developed to tackle SARS-CoV-2.