Author: Andrew J Stier; Marc G Berman; Luis M. A. Bettencourt
Title: COVID-19 attack rate increases with city size Document date: 2020_3_27
ID: aeminwf0_4
Snippet: First, because there is no history of previous exposure, all human populations in contact with the virus are (presumably) susceptible. This means that the susceptible population is the world's total population writ large. Second, because COVID-19 is a respiratory disease, it is easily transmissible resulting in high reproductive numbers, R = 2.2 − 6.5 (1-3), though considerable uncertainty remains about these estimates. Third, COVID-19 appears .....
Document: First, because there is no history of previous exposure, all human populations in contact with the virus are (presumably) susceptible. This means that the susceptible population is the world's total population writ large. Second, because COVID-19 is a respiratory disease, it is easily transmissible resulting in high reproductive numbers, R = 2.2 − 6.5 (1-3), though considerable uncertainty remains about these estimates. Third, COVID-19 appears to be characterized by reproductive numbers above the epidemic threshold (R > 1) everywhere around the world, regardless of environmental conditions such as humidity or temperature. These reproductive numbers are considerably higher than seasonal influenza (4) . Bringing the disease reproductive number below the epidemic threshold (R → R < 1) is the main goal of all public health interventions; once this is achieved the disease's transmission chain reaction will shut down.
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