Selected article for: "second phase and SIR model"
Author: Naomie Salim; Weng Howe Chan; Shuhaimi Mansor; Nor Erne Nazira Bazin; Safiya Amaran; Ahmad Athif Mohd Faudzi; Anazida Zainal; Sharin Hazlin Huspi; Eric Jiun Hooi Khoo; Shaekh Mohammad Shithil
Title: COVID-19 epidemic in Malaysia: Impact of lock-down on infection dynamics
  • Document date: 2020_4_11
    • ID: 652vzlq6_51
    Snippet: In our study, SIR models were generated with two different sets of data. First SIR model was generated using the data obtained before the MCO period (we called it non-MCO) which is 1st March to 17th March 2020. Meanwhile, second SIR model was generated using the data obtained during MCO phase 1 period (we call it MCO) which is 18th to 31st March 2020. During the first phase of the experiment, these two SIR models (non-MCO) and (MCO) assume that t.....
    Document: In our study, SIR models were generated with two different sets of data. First SIR model was generated using the data obtained before the MCO period (we called it non-MCO) which is 1st March to 17th March 2020. Meanwhile, second SIR model was generated using the data obtained during MCO phase 1 period (we call it MCO) which is 18th to 31st March 2020. During the first phase of the experiment, these two SIR models (non-MCO) and (MCO) assume that the total Malaysian population of 32.6 million (which is 100%) is susceptible to be infected. Meanwhile the second phase of the experiments, we assume only 30% of total Malaysian population is susceptible to be infected. Figure 14 shows the predicted cases using the SIR model (non-MCO with 100% population). The model peaks at 2.6 million cases, which is equivalent to 8% of the total Malaysian population on 20th April 2020. However, second SIR model (MCO with 100% population) shown in red, shows a lower peak (at 630K predicted cases) on 31st May 2020. All rights reserved. No reuse allowed without permission.

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