COVID-19 in India: Predictions, Reproduction Number and Public Health Preparedness

Balram Rai; Anandi Shukla; Laxmi Kant Dwivedi

This growth model was adopted for all three components and predicted the future cases up to the end of the month, April, i.e., the 30th of April. While all three components closely followed exponential growth with a rise in the number of confirmed cases more steadily compared to recovered cases and deaths. The exponential growth rate model for confirmed cases, recovered cases, and deaths are based on the available data is described in equations 2, 3, and 4, respectively. The active cases were calculated by subtracting the total recoveries and deaths from total confirmed cases described in equation 5. The active cases refer to the cases that will be . CC-BY-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. The number of cases obtained from the above growth models is consistent with the cases observed from the data used, which can be reflected in figure 1 .A, 1.B, and 1.C. Hence these growth models can provide us a fairly enough estimates which can be useful for the policymakers to be prepared for any such public health requirements for hospitalizations and ICU.