Author: Alexander Lachmann
Title: Correcting under-reported COVID-19 case numbers Document date: 2020_3_18
ID: gttuxtw6_15
Snippet: C. Calculating growth rate spline modeling behavior change. We use the observed growth rate curves of China, Italy, and Iran to estimate the average growth rate change on population behavior changes and the effect on growth rate over time. We align the growth rate curves for the three countries to achieve a best fit on the exponentially decreasing part of recorded growth rates. The onset of the curves does not have to fall on the days where a loc.....
Document: C. Calculating growth rate spline modeling behavior change. We use the observed growth rate curves of China, Italy, and Iran to estimate the average growth rate change on population behavior changes and the effect on growth rate over time. We align the growth rate curves for the three countries to achieve a best fit on the exponentially decreasing part of recorded growth rates. The onset of the curves does not have to fall on the days where a lockdown was put in place. We fit the data points from China, Italy, and Iran to a exponentially decreasing growth rate function EDG(t) with two parameters a and b.
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