COVID-19 containment policies through time may cost more lives at metapopulation level

Wells, K.; Lurgi, M.

The rapid and pandemic spread of COVID-19 has led to unprecedented containment policies in response to overloaded health care systems. Disease mitigation strategies require informed decision-making to ensure a balance between the protection of the vulnerable from disease and the maintenance of global economies. We show that temporally restricted containment efforts, that have the potential to flatten epidemic curves, can result in wider disease spread and larger epidemic sizes in metapopulations. Longer-term rewiring of metapopulation networks or the enforcement of feasible long-term measures that decrease disease transmissions appear to be more efficient than temporarily restricted intensive mitigation strategies (e.g. short-term mass quarantine). Our results may inform balanced containment strategies for short-term disease spread mitigation in response to overloaded health care systems and longer-term epidemiological sizes.