Patient-Led COVID-19 Triage Systems and Case Fatality Rates: A Comparative Study Between Singapore, Japan, Norway, the USA and the UK.

Mansab, F.; Bhatti, S.; Goyal, D.

Introduction: The case fatality rate from COVID-19 differs markedly around the world. There are likely a number of factors one can attribute to such disparity, not least of which is differing healthcare models and approaches. Here, we examine the COVID-19 related health advice issued by six different countries, specifically examining the patient-led triage pathways in each country. Methods: A simulation study was conducted on current, nationwide, patient-led triage systems from three countries with low case fatality rates (Singapore, Norway and Japan) and two countries with high case fatality rates (the USA and the UK). 36 case scenarios were designed to imitate common presentations of COVID-19 with varying degrees of severity. These scenarios were then fed into each countrys patient-led triage system. The advice for each scenario was recorded and then compared. Results: Patient-led triage systems from Singapore, Japan and Norway maintained a low threshold for advising clinical contact for patients with possible COVID-19 (88 to 100% of cases were referred). Patient-led triage systems from the USA and the UK maintained high thresholds for advising contact with either call centre support or clinical contact (28 and 33% of cases were referred, respectively), and triaged the majority of cases home with no further healthcare input. There was a strong inverse correlation between percentage of cases referred and the nations case fatality rate (Pearsons Correlation = -0.642, p = 0.01). Conclusion: In this simulation study, countries with low case fatality rates - Singapore, Norway and Japan -, performed well, successfully identifying severe COVID-19 and triaging such cases to medical care. The USA triage system (CDCs Coronavirus Self-Checker) and the UKs triage system (NHS 111 online) performed poorly, failing to identify Severe COVID-19 infection and sepsis in the case simulations, and triaging the majority of cases to self-care with no further healthcare input. Such poorly performing triage systems are likely to be contributing to the high case fatality rates in the US and the UK.