Author: Steinegger, B.; Granell, C.; Rapisardi, G.; Gomez, S.; Matamalas, J.; Soriano-Panos, D.; Gomez-Gardenes, J.; Arenas, A.
Title: Retrospective study of the first wave of COVID-19 in Spain: analysis of counterfactual scenarios Cord-id: 8vbfqp5i Document date: 2021_2_18
ID: 8vbfqp5i
Snippet: One of the most important questions on the COVID-19 pandemic is ascertaining the correct timing to introduce non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), based mainly on mobility restrictions, to control the rising of the daily incidence in a specific territory. Here, we make a retrospective analysis of the first wave of the epidemic in Spain and provide a set of useful insights to optimize actions in the near future. We have reconstructed the exposure times, from infection to detectability, to corr
Document: One of the most important questions on the COVID-19 pandemic is ascertaining the correct timing to introduce non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), based mainly on mobility restrictions, to control the rising of the daily incidence in a specific territory. Here, we make a retrospective analysis of the first wave of the epidemic in Spain and provide a set of useful insights to optimize actions in the near future. We have reconstructed the exposure times, from infection to detectability, to correctly estimate the reproduction number Rt. This enables us to analyze counterfactual scenarios to understand the impact of earlier or later responses, decoupling containment measures from natural immunity. Our results quantify the differences in the number of fatalities for earlier and later responses to the epidemic in Spain.
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