Author: Yi Li; Meng Liang; Xianhong Yin; Xiaoyu Liu; Meng Hao; Zixin Hu; Yi Wang; Li Jin
Title: COVID-19 Epidemic Outside China: 34 Founders and Exponential Growth Document date: 2020_3_3
ID: 7reqkx3h_19
Snippet: The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.01.20029819 doi: medRxiv preprint where Nt is the number of diagnosed patients outside China according to WHO at the tth day, t=1 at Feb 1; u is the number of unobserved founder patients at the beginning of spread outside China; a and b are simple linear regression parameters. We enumerated u from 0 to 100 with step size 1. For each u, we calculated Pearson's correlation R 2.....
Document: The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.01.20029819 doi: medRxiv preprint where Nt is the number of diagnosed patients outside China according to WHO at the tth day, t=1 at Feb 1; u is the number of unobserved founder patients at the beginning of spread outside China; a and b are simple linear regression parameters. We enumerated u from 0 to 100 with step size 1. For each u, we calculated Pearson's correlation R 2 between t and !" ( # + ) . We selected the 7 that maximize R 2 and estimate corresponding 7 and 8 using a simple linear regression between t and !" ( # + 7).
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