COVID-19 in Canada: Predictions for the future and control lessons from Asia

Cornelius Christian; Francis Christian

As with any discussion of exponential virus growth, it is difficult to predict exactly when the peak of the outbreak will take place in Canada. However our models are consistent with other models of exponential growth, including those from Italy where the exponential growth pattern continues unabated. 5 Countries in Asia, including Taiwan, Singapore, and Hong Kong, have rapidly brought the COVID-19 outbreak under control, and have important lessons to teach European and North American nations struggling with exponential growth rates. Both these nations have used a multitude of early, aggressive interventions including rapid border controls, social distancing, the innovative and population-wide use of smart phone technology and the ubiquitous wearing of surgical masks in healthcare settings as well as the general population. 10 Apart from the late and uncertain adoption of social distancing, Canada has not been willing or able to learn from these countries' experience. In particular, there is not yet any attempt to mobilize smart phone technology or use face masks for all healthcare workers. Face masks have been shown to reduce infection rates in influenza epidemics and WHO officials have been shown in news media to be wearing face masks whilst addressing news 3 . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.