Author: Alex Arenas; Wesley Cota; Jesus Gomez-Gardenes; Sergio Gómez; Clara Granell; Joan T. Matamalas; David Soriano-Panos; Benjamin Steinegger
Title: A mathematical model for the spatiotemporal epidemic spreading of COVID19 Document date: 2020_3_23
ID: knt1f78p_45
Snippet: We have applied the results to the validation and projection of the propagation of COVID-19 in Spain. Our results reveal that, at the current stage of the epidemics, the application of stricter containment measures of social distance are urgent to avoid the collapse of the health system. Moreover, we are close to an scenario in which the complete lockdown appears as the only possible measure to avoid the former situation. Other scenarios can be p.....
Document: We have applied the results to the validation and projection of the propagation of COVID-19 in Spain. Our results reveal that, at the current stage of the epidemics, the application of stricter containment measures of social distance are urgent to avoid the collapse of the health system. Moreover, we are close to an scenario in which the complete lockdown appears as the only possible measure to avoid the former situation. Other scenarios can be prescribed and analyzed after lockdown, as for example pulsating open-closing strategies or targeted herd immunity.
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