Forecasting the CoViD19 Diffusion in Italy and the Related Occupancy of Intensive Care Units

Fenga, Livio

This paper provides a model based method for the forecast of the total number of currently CoVoD19 positive individuals and of the occupancy of the available Intensive Care Units in Italy. The predictions obtained, for a time horizon of 10 days starting from March 29th, will be provided at a national as well as at a more disaggregate levels, following a criterion based on the magnitude of the phenomenon. While the Regions which have been hit the most by the pandemic have been kept separated, the less affected ones have been aggregated into homogeneous macroareas. Results show that , within the forecast period considered (March 29th April 7th ) , all of the Italian regions will show a decreasing number of CoViD-19 positive people. Same for the number of people who will need to be hospitalized in a Intensive Care Unit (ICU). These estimates are valid under constancy of the Government s current containment policies. In this scenario, Northern Regions will remain the most affected ones and no significant outbreak are foreseen in the southern regions.