Alternative Strategies for the Estimation of a Disease’s Basic Reproduction Number: A Model-Agnostic Study

Páez, Gustavo Nicolás; Cerón, Juan Felipe; Cortés, Santiago; Quiroz, Adolfo J.; Zea, José Fernando; Franco, Camila; Cruz, Érica; Vargas, Gina; Castañeda, Carlos

This work presents a model-agnostic evaluation of four different models that estimate a disease’s basic reproduction number. The evaluation presented is twofold: first, the theory behind each of the models is reviewed and compared; then, each model is tested with eight impartial simulations. All scenarios were constructed in an experimental framework that allows each model to fulfill its assumptions and hence, obtain unbiased results for each case. Among these models is the one proposed by Thompson et al. (Epidemics 29:100356, 2019), i.e., a Bayesian estimation method well established in epidemiological practice. The other three models include a novel state-space method and two simulation-based approaches based on a Poisson infection process. The advantages and flaws of each model are discussed from both theoretical and practical standpoints. Finally, we present the evolution of Covid-19 outbreak in Colombia as a case study for computing the basic reproduction number with each one of the reviewed methods.