COVID-19 epidemic in Malaysia: Impact of lock-down on infection dynamics

Naomie Salim; Weng Howe Chan; Shuhaimi Mansor; Nor Erne Nazira Bazin; Safiya Amaran; Ahmad Athif Mohd Faudzi; Anazida Zainal; Sharin Hazlin Huspi; Eric Jiun Hooi Khoo; Shaekh Mohammad Shithil

The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not peer-reviewed) is . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.08.20057463 doi: medRxiv preprint It is a trivial solution that the curve of C(x) is symmetry before and after the peak, however, it may be true all the time especially when dealing with uncertainties. Some uncertainties may happen, such as capacity of healthcare system, social distancing and compliance to MCO in. Figure 5 show the unsymmetrical curves of active cases in China and Korea. The unsymmetrical of the curves can be model using skewness effect to both sides of the distribution curve (i.e., before and after the peak value). In this case the skewness effect is applied on the right side of the curve because it is most likely people may not fully comply with MCO rules and regulations (social distancing, crowd gathering and etc.) after long duration of MCO. The skewness effect is modelled by varying standard deviation on the right side (after the peak value) of the normal distribution.