COVID-19 epidemic in Malaysia: Impact of lock-down on infection dynamics

Naomie Salim; Weng Howe Chan; Shuhaimi Mansor; Nor Erne Nazira Bazin; Safiya Amaran; Ahmad Athif Mohd Faudzi; Anazida Zainal; Sharin Hazlin Huspi; Eric Jiun Hooi Khoo; Shaekh Mohammad Shithil

Compared to Figure 14 , the estimated peak based on SIR model (non-MCO with 30% population) occurs earlier which is around mid of April 2020 (20th April 2020) with predicted max cases near to 800k. While for the SIR model (MCO with 30% population), the estimated peak happens around mid-May (20th May 2020) with about 200k cases. This implies a 75% reduction of cases. Our finding, if the susceptible population is reduced due to social distancing and MCO, the expected peak of cases could be flattened and it will peak at earlier date (around 10 days earlier than the peak of SIR model (MCO with 100% population) as shown in Figure 14) . The values of estimated parameters for these models are as shown in Table 2 . It is important to note that the parameters are very similar to the models generated based on 100% total Malaysian population. The only difference is the time when it peaks and the the maximum number of predicted cases. The projected values of S, I and R are also shown in Figure 17 . Figure 18