Author: Yohannes Kinfu; Uzma Alam; Tom Achoki
Title: COVID-19 pandemic in the African continent: forecasts of cumulative cases, new infections, and mortality Document date: 2020_4_14
ID: atee6lis_15
Snippet: is the estimated number of deaths for country y (y= 1, 2…47) using country k's (China and Italy) COVID-19 fatality rate, general health system readiness and socio-economic standards as a is population level COVID-19 prevalence rate and is an estimate we generated using the instrumental variable regression expressed in equation 1. The quantity in the square bracket represents agestandardized estimated number of deaths in country y, if age-specif.....
Document: is the estimated number of deaths for country y (y= 1, 2…47) using country k's (China and Italy) COVID-19 fatality rate, general health system readiness and socio-economic standards as a is population level COVID-19 prevalence rate and is an estimate we generated using the instrumental variable regression expressed in equation 1. The quantity in the square bracket represents agestandardized estimated number of deaths in country y, if age-specific fatality rates were to follow those of the standard populations. However, our study population differs from the two countries not just with respect to age structure but also living standard and health system readiness. Hence, to adjust the estimated deaths further we developed a correction factor that links the socio-economic status and health system readiness of each country with those two populations, which is represented by
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