COVID-19 pandemic in the African continent: forecasts of cumulative cases, new infections, and mortality

Yohannes Kinfu; Uzma Alam; Tom Achoki

Across the months, the number of new COVID-19 infections are expected to increase from 2.5 million cases in April, to 5.8 million cases in May, to 8 million cases by the end of June. This represents a 135% increase from April to May and a 39% increase from May to June, which suggests a possible slowing down of the pandemic over time. Sub-regional and country level differences are expected to deepen as the pandemic becomes more established in the region. In the coming three months, incidence is expected to increase faster in Southern and Northern Africa, followed by the Central Africa sub-region. In each sub-region, we expect some countries to be affected more than others and become hotbeds of new infections (see Figure 2B ). In places like Djibouti, the rate of new infections is expected to reach as high as 32. Figure 1B .