Author: Shovonlal Roy
Title: COVID-19 pandemic: Impact of lockdown, contact and non-contact transmissions on infection dynamics Document date: 2020_4_7
ID: 61ta81iy_12
Snippet: Simulations suggest that due consideration should be given to reduce not one, but all transmission rates, i.e both contact transmission and non-contact transmission. To give an example, let us suppose that the health-service capacity is only 30% of the no-action infection-peak. Under this constraint, if the contact transmission reduces by 75% during lockdown, but non-contact transmission does not reduce considerably (10%), the infection peak will.....
Document: Simulations suggest that due consideration should be given to reduce not one, but all transmission rates, i.e both contact transmission and non-contact transmission. To give an example, let us suppose that the health-service capacity is only 30% of the no-action infection-peak. Under this constraint, if the contact transmission reduces by 75% during lockdown, but non-contact transmission does not reduce considerably (10%), the infection peak will stay well above the health-service capacity (top panel, green line in Fig. 2 ). But if the non-contact transmission further reduces, say, by 75%, the effect will be a considerably lower infection peak, within the reach of health-service capacity (bottom panel, green line in Fig. 2) .
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