Multi-Layer SIS Model with an Infrastructure Network

Pare, Philip E.; Janson, Axel; Gracy, Sebin; Liu, Ji; Sandberg, Henrik; Johansson, Karl H.

This paper deals with the spread of diseases over both a population network and an infrastructure network. We develop a layered networked spread model for a susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) pathogen-borne disease spreading over a human contact network and an infrastructure network, and refer to it as a layered networked susceptible-infected-water-susceptible (SIWS) model. The SIWS network is in the healthy state (also referred to as the disease-free equilibrium) if none of the individuals in the population are infected nor is the infrastructure network contaminated; otherwise, we say that the network is in the endemic state (also referred to as the endemic equilibrium). First, we establish sufficient conditions for local exponential stability and global asymptotic stability (GAS) of the healthy state. Second, we provide sufficient conditions for existence, uniqueness, and GAS of the endemic state. Building off of these results, we provide a necessary, and sufficient, condition for the healthy state to be the unique equilibrium of our model. Third, we show that the endemic equilibrium of the SIWS model is worse than that of the networked SIS model without any infrastructure network, in the sense that at least one subpopulation has strictly larger infection proportion at the endemic equilibrium in the former model than that in the latter. Fourth, we study an observability problem, and, assuming that the measurements of the sickness-levels of the human contact network are available, provide a necessary and sufficient condition for estimation of the pathogen levels in the infrastructure network. Furthermore, we provide another sufficient, but not necessary, condition for estimation of pathogen levels in the infrastructure network.