COVID-19: combined supply-side and demand-side shocks, so lift restrictions (carefully) lest GPD declines ultimately kill more than COVID-19

Grech, Victor; Grech, Peter

COVID-19 remains pandemic. Social distancing and travel restrictions have avoided countless deaths and infections but disrupted livelihoods and economies. The global loss of gross (world) product is unprecedented as COVID-19 has inflicted both a supply-side and a demand-side shock. While public health measures have mitigated morbidity and mortality, the excessive loss of GDP will lead to years of life lost due to recession with diminished spend on healthcare, safety and the environment. This paper will review the estimated COVID-19 economic impact and show that it is timely and crucial to (carefully) ease restrictions as any additional economic slide will continue to intensify an already parlous situation and further negatively impact overall global average human life expectancy. The USA and UK will be used as specific examples, as will the general case of delayed cancer treatment due to COVID-19 service disruption. Financial stimuli that attempt to revive flagging economies by governments and blocs will be outlined and the current uniformly bleak global forecasts will be briefly contrasted with the Great Depression of the 1930s. The biased adverse impact on low-income households will be sketched, and a reminder of the unknown eventual costs of lasting illness (“long COVID”) will also have to be factored in restriction removal policies. At this point in time (end of summer 2020), fierce debates rage within each country regarding the potential trade-offs of health vs economy. The need for unbiased and rigorous quantitative evaluations of all possible decisions is paramount. Lift restrictions (carefully) lest GPD declines ultimately kill more than COVID-19 Social distancing and travel restrictions have avoided countless deaths and infections. But have disrupted livelihoods and national and global economies. Unnecessary restrictions will further decimate economies. This will engender poverty and lead to reduce years of life. All countries must (cautiously) raise restrictions. The need for rigorous quantitative evaluations of all decisions is paramount.