Modeling the Dynamics of Coronavirus Disease Pandemic Coupled with Fear Epidemics

Mpeshe, Saul C.; Nyerere, Nkuba

A modeling approach to investigate the dynamics of COVID-19 epidemics coupled with fear is presented in this paper. The basic reproduction number R(0) is computed and employed in analysing the effect of initial transmission and the conditions for disease control or eradication. Numerical simulations show that whenever there is an outbreak coupled with fear, the disease is likely to persist in the first two months, and after that, it will start to slow down as the recovery rate from fear increases. An increase in the number of recovered individuals lead to a rise in the number of susceptibles and consequently set off a second wave of infection in the third month of the epidemic.