Author: Mahendra K. Verma; Ali Asad; Soumyadeep Chatterjee
Title: COVID-19 epidemic: Power law spread and flattening of the curve Document date: 2020_4_6
ID: o0e6saez_18
Snippet: We can combine the above ingredients into a comprehensive picture for the epidemic forecast, specially for flattening or saturating the I(t) curve that is prime objective for most affected nations. As illustrated in the schematic diagram of Fig. 2 , the I(t) curve follows four stages: exp(βt), t n , t, and constant, which are represented by S1, S2, S3, and S4 respectively. It is an elementary observation that the I(t) curve transitions from a co.....
Document: We can combine the above ingredients into a comprehensive picture for the epidemic forecast, specially for flattening or saturating the I(t) curve that is prime objective for most affected nations. As illustrated in the schematic diagram of Fig. 2 , the I(t) curve follows four stages: exp(βt), t n , t, and constant, which are represented by S1, S2, S3, and S4 respectively. It is an elementary observation that the I(t) curve transitions from a convex form (S1) to a concave form (S2, S3, S4). Such a simple observation of the data reveals insights into the temporal evolution of the epidemic. For example, before flattening of I(t), we look for flattening of the growth rateİ(t), which is the third stage in Fig. 2 .
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