Covid-19 excess deaths in the United States through July 2020

Harry P Wetzler; Erica A Wetzler

COVID-19 deaths are increasing rapidly. At 5 PM GMT on April 7, 2020 the worldwide COVID-19 death toll was reported to be 79,055 with 11,907 of these deaths occurring in the United States (US). 1 One aspect of this grim situation that has received less attention is the extent to which some of these deaths would have occurred without the viral insult. Noted British statistician Sir David Spiegelhalter was quoted as saying "Many people who die of Covid would have died anyway within a short period." 2 Triggle asserted that "Knowing exactly how many [would have died anyway within a short period] is impossible to tell at this stage." 2 To estimate excess COVID-19 deaths compared to deaths projected for the same period of time in the absence of COVID-19, Bannerjee, et al, used life table methods to estimate excess one-year mortality from COVID-19 in the United Kingdom (UK). 3 They found that if 10% of the UK population were infected, the number of excess deaths would be 13,791 if COVID-19 confers a 20% increase in mortality risk and 34,479 deaths with a 50% increase in risk.