Author: Michael E. Hochberg
Title: Countries should aim to lower the reproduction number R close to 1.0 for the short-term mitigation of COVID-19 outbreaks Document date: 2020_4_17
ID: f36smzln_3
Snippet: We previously simulated a simple SEIR model (14) to evaluate how short-term 'bang-bang' suppression-mitigation strategies could establish the conditions for a longer-term approach. A longer-term approach would integrate medicine (e.g., repurposed drugs, antibody transfusions, vaccines), technology (e.g., cell phone apps) and infrastructure (dedicated institutions) to reduce outbreaks and increase normalcy. The analysis showed that reacting insuff.....
Document: We previously simulated a simple SEIR model (14) to evaluate how short-term 'bang-bang' suppression-mitigation strategies could establish the conditions for a longer-term approach. A longer-term approach would integrate medicine (e.g., repurposed drugs, antibody transfusions, vaccines), technology (e.g., cell phone apps) and infrastructure (dedicated institutions) to reduce outbreaks and increase normalcy. The analysis showed that reacting insufficiently or increasingly late to an outbreak meant the need to enact more stringent 'suppression' measures to obtain a given level of reset in the numbers of infectious individuals. We found that this reset level, in turn, was crucial to how subsequent 'mitigation' measures could manage an outbreak. Importantly, approximate target levels were identified for lowered reproductive numbers, â„›, that correspond to the rate of change in new cases.
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