COVID-19 Outbreak Situations in Bangladesh: An Empirical Analysis

Md Hasinur Rahaman Khan; Ahmed Hossain

The copyright holder for this preprint . https: //doi.org/10.1101 //doi.org/10. /2020 the track and also how quickly the virus spread within the countries who are on the same trajectory line. We call this procedure as the ITPS (Infection Trajectory-Pathway Strategy). Bangladesh crossed 100 case mark on April 7 exactly one month after the first case that was identified on April 8. However, Figure 5 shows that Bangladesh could follow the same pathway of infection trajectory (between 3 and 5 days to double the cases) that is experienced by any of the five countries-Austria who is 29 days ahead, Isreal who is 25 days ahead, Netherlands who is 31 days ahead, France who is 38 days ahead and United Kingdom who is 32 days ahead. These lead to the projected infections for Bangladesh as reported in Table 1 . This table also shows the projected deaths estimated based on the global CFR value which is about 6 (Johns Hopkins University, 2020b) as on April 14, 2020. This projection method suggests that Bangladesh could cross 14,000 case mark and 850 deaths, in worst scenario, by May 13 while infection and death toll could cross 100,000 and 8500 respectively around in May 20.