COVID-19 pandemic in the African continent: forecasts of cumulative cases, new infections, and mortality

Yohannes Kinfu; Uzma Alam; Tom Achoki

Still, even with all these NPI measures, several countries with weak healthcare delivery systems are expected to have a significant number of infections and fatalities. Therefore, the already overstretched healthcare systems in Africa need to anticipate and prepare to handle an increased number of patients as a consequence of the pandemic, on top of the other common disease conditions that are prevalent in the region. Unfortunately, this is a lesson Africa has already had to learn from the 2014 Ebola outbreak in West Africa. It is estimated there were an additional 11,000 deaths from malaria, HIV/AIDS and TB across Sierra-Leone, Guinea and Liberia, (44) a 60% decrease in the number of children treated for diarrhea and acute respiratory infections (45) and a 38% increase in maternal mortality in Guinea and a 111% increase in Liberia. (46) (47) Understanding the factors that accelerate and those that mitigate the spread and mortality related to COVID-19, while accounting for local realities, is fundamental for sound public health measures to tackle the pandemic. In fact, lessons from HIV/AIDS programming have taught us that highly effective health interventions fail if the local context is not recognized. Therefore, decision makers in Africa must realize that one size does not fit all and could lead to disastrous outcomes. They should also find ways and means to maintain the progress made toward universal childhood immunization and the HIV epidemics in the region.