COVID-19 Outbreak Situations in Bangladesh: An Empirical Analysis

Md Hasinur Rahaman Khan; Ahmed Hossain

There is a number of models available in literature to model infectious diseases of which a few models has been used primarily for the countries where number of cases is very high like China, Italy, Spain, UK, Germany and USA. Particularly, a number of study works [Kucharski et al. (2020) IHME COVID-19 health service utilization forecasting team (2020), Phua et al. (2020) and Phua et al. (2020) ] has used various mathematical models to determine the spread of the disease, predict the number of incidence, health care faciities in tackling COVID-19 spread. We will use polynomial regression model to predict the infected people, deaths and other healthcare faciities. However, it was also claimed that Bangladesh's existing healthcare infrastructure is not very strong as per the WHO guide-lines [9] and in case of community spread, the Bangladesh government may find it difficult to manage the spread in light with the predicted statisstics.