COVID-19 pandemic in the African continent: forecasts of cumulative cases, new infections, and mortality

Yohannes Kinfu; Uzma Alam; Tom Achoki

Our results show a heterogeneous picture of projected new infections, cumulative cases, and deaths across the African continent. Our Among our key findings are that African countries that are relatively more urbanized and have a higher socio-demographic index (SDI) are projected to experience a faster growth of the epidemic, at least during the initial periods. To illustrate this trend, Algeria, Morocco, and Tunisia, in the Northern African sub-region, which have a predominantly urban population, and are in close proximity to the high burden European countries, are projected to experience a higher incidence of COVID-19 infections in comparison to their neighbors. In the Southern Africa sub-region, South Africa, which has a proportionately higher urban population and greater international connectivity, is also projected to lead the rest of the pack in terms of new infections rates. In the Eastern Africa sub-region, Kenya, which is relatively more urbanized has a higher per capita incidence rate in comparison to other countries within the sub-region. However, it is noted that some of these countries also have higher living standards and better health system than most countries in the region. Hence the high prevalence rates and estimated deaths in these countries may in part reflect their greater ability to detect and confirm COVID-19 cases.