Author: Clément Massonnaud; Jonathan Roux; Pascal Crépey
Title: COVID-19: Forecasting short term hospital needs in France Document date: 2020_3_20
ID: i46n70gb_23
Snippet: Our analysis shows that in France between 2,500 and 25,000 patients may require an ICU stay, and between 1,800 and 18,000 may need to be ventilated. Table 4 shows the estimated total number of ICU beds and ICU ventilated beds required per Region on April 14 under the three R 0 scenarios, as well as the total ICU capacity in the Region, considering an average length of stay of 15 days. We note very large variations between the two extreme scenario.....
Document: Our analysis shows that in France between 2,500 and 25,000 patients may require an ICU stay, and between 1,800 and 18,000 may need to be ventilated. Table 4 shows the estimated total number of ICU beds and ICU ventilated beds required per Region on April 14 under the three R 0 scenarios, as well as the total ICU capacity in the Region, considering an average length of stay of 15 days. We note very large variations between the two extreme scenarios (from 305 to 4,260 ICU beds in Ile-de-France), and that the middle range scenario generally shows estimations very close or over the regional ICU capacity limit, which will restrain possible inter-regional cooperation or patient transfers.
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