Author: Shaun A Truelove; Orit Abrahim; Chiara Altare; Andrew Azman; Paul B Spiegel
Title: COVID-19: Projecting the impact in Rohingya refugee camps and beyond Document date: 2020_3_30
ID: 6njag0dq_8
Snippet: We found that a large-scale outbreak is highly likely in this population, even under the low transmission scenario, with 65% of the simulations producing an outbreak of at least 1,000 infections with a single introduction (Table 1 ) and increasing to 82% and 93% in the moderate and high transmission scenarios, respectively. On average, in the first 30 days of an outbreak following a single introduction, estimated infections range from 119 in the .....
Document: We found that a large-scale outbreak is highly likely in this population, even under the low transmission scenario, with 65% of the simulations producing an outbreak of at least 1,000 infections with a single introduction (Table 1 ) and increasing to 82% and 93% in the moderate and high transmission scenarios, respectively. On average, in the first 30 days of an outbreak following a single introduction, estimated infections range from 119 in the low transmission scenario to 504 in the high. One year after the start of an outbreak, and in the absence of any effective interventions (e.g., vaccination, quarantine) or behavior change, between 73% (95% CI, 62-81%) and 98% (95% CI, 96-99%) of the population will have been infected (low and high transmission scenario) ( Table 1 ).
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