Covid-19 predictions using a Gauss model, based on data from April 2

Janik Schuttler; Reinhard Schlickeiser; Frank Schlickeiser; Martin Kroger

π is the projected total number of fatalities at t → ∞ and erf is the error function. Using (A7) the time t 0 by which a first patient died from the virus is immediately estimated via D(t 0 ) = 1. Similarly via I(t 0 ) = 1 for the first infected person, so-called patient 0, if one takes into account a time shift τ and ratio f between d max and i max , cf. (A6), and one ignores the fact that the gaussian is likely to break down in this limit. The explicit expression is t 0 = t i,max − w i erf −1 (1 − 2/I total ) for the time of first appearance of Covid-19, and this time is specific for each country. Here, erf −1 is the inverse error function. For values close to unity it is well approximated by