Author: Janik Schuttler; Reinhard Schlickeiser; Frank Schlickeiser; Martin Kroger
Title: Covid-19 predictions using a Gauss model, based on data from April 2 Document date: 2020_4_11
ID: 14x9luqu_6
Snippet: It must be emphasized that we model the daily change of deaths, in contrast to the cumulative number of deaths, more frequently available in public, because the change of deaths allow for a more stable fit around its maximum, i.e. the time of interest for predicted quantities. We will explain this point in the discussion. The cumulative deaths are the sum of all previous daily deaths up to today, while the number of daily deaths in turn is the di.....
Document: It must be emphasized that we model the daily change of deaths, in contrast to the cumulative number of deaths, more frequently available in public, because the change of deaths allow for a more stable fit around its maximum, i.e. the time of interest for predicted quantities. We will explain this point in the discussion. The cumulative deaths are the sum of all previous daily deaths up to today, while the number of daily deaths in turn is the difference of two consecutive days in cumulative deaths. In Fig. 1(a) , the red plot illustrates the cumulative number of deaths as a function of time for the respective daily number of deaths in the same panel.
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