Author: Salvatoni, Alessandro
Title: How the Covid-19 Pandemia Is Spreading in Italy Cord-id: 9zop4c15 Document date: 2020_4_11
ID: 9zop4c15
Snippet: In this short paper we describe a simple technique aimed to forecast the course of the spreading of Covid-19 virus infection in Italy. Data released every day by the Italian "Protezione Civile" organization have been processed with reference of the the SIR classical mathematical model by Kermack and McKendrick. The model provides a rough estimate of the time needed to completely block virus spread. The above assumptions will be valid if Covid-19 will not be recognized as capable of establishing
Document: In this short paper we describe a simple technique aimed to forecast the course of the spreading of Covid-19 virus infection in Italy. Data released every day by the Italian "Protezione Civile" organization have been processed with reference of the the SIR classical mathematical model by Kermack and McKendrick. The model provides a rough estimate of the time needed to completely block virus spread. The above assumptions will be valid if Covid-19 will not be recognized as capable of establishing a chronic productive infection in significant fraction of the population.
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