Author: Yi Li; Meng Liang; Xianhong Yin; Xiaoyu Liu; Meng Hao; Zixin Hu; Yi Wang; Li Jin
Title: COVID-19 Epidemic Outside China: 34 Founders and Exponential Growth Document date: 2020_3_3
ID: 7reqkx3h_12
Snippet: Recently, many researchers devoted to more details about the analysis of the spread of epidemic. 14,15 Some paralleled results have shown that the reproductive number R0 estimated of COVID-19 is bigger than that of SARS based on different models. [16] [17] [18] With the limited number of data points and the complexity of the real situation, a straightforward model is expected to work better (see Discussion). In this study, we propose a "log-plus".....
Document: Recently, many researchers devoted to more details about the analysis of the spread of epidemic. 14,15 Some paralleled results have shown that the reproductive number R0 estimated of COVID-19 is bigger than that of SARS based on different models. [16] [17] [18] With the limited number of data points and the complexity of the real situation, a straightforward model is expected to work better (see Discussion). In this study, we propose a "log-plus" model for the situation prediction which only requires daily number of total diagnosis outside China. This model assumes that there were some unobserved founder patients at the beginning of spread outside China and exponential growth later. Despite the simplicity of our model, it fits the data well (R 2 =0.991). The prediction is expected to provide practical significance on social application and evidence for enhancing public health interventions to avoid severe outbreaks.
Search related documents:
Co phrase search for related documents- better work and straightforward model: 1
- daily number and social application: 1
- daily number and straightforward model: 1, 2, 3
- daily number and total diagnosis: 1
- different model and social application: 1
- different model and straightforward model: 1, 2
- different model and total diagnosis: 1
- epidemic spread and social application: 1, 2
- exponential growth and social application: 1
- exponential growth and straightforward model: 1, 2
- limited number and social application: 1, 2
- limited number and straightforward model: 1
- limited number and total diagnosis: 1
- practical significance and social application: 1
- practical significance provide and social application: 1
- public health and social application: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23
- public health and straightforward model: 1, 2
- public health and total diagnosis: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10
- real situation and straightforward model: 1
Co phrase search for related documents, hyperlinks ordered by date