The Impact of Temperature and Isolation on COVID-19 in India: A Mathematical Modelling approach

Prakash, D Bhanu; Chhetri, Bishal; Vamsi, D K K; Balasubramanian, S; Sanjeevi, Carani B

The dynamics of COVID-19 in India are captured using a set of delay differential equations by dividing a constant population into six compartments. The equilibrium points are calculated and stability analysis is performed. Sensitivity analysis is performed on the parameters of the model. Bifurcation analysis is performed and the critical delay is calculated. By formulating the spread parameter as a function of temperature, the impact of temperature on the population is studied. We concluded that with the decrease in temperature, the average infections in the population increases. In view of the coming winter season in India, there will be an increase in new infections. This model falls in line with the characteristics that increase in isolation delay increases average infections in the population.