Covid-19 predictions using a Gauss model, based on data from April 2

Janik Schuttler; Reinhard Schlickeiser; Frank Schlickeiser; Martin Kroger

Using the GM, one can obtain predictions for the further course of the Covid-19 pandemic analytically from the three descriptors. We here present two possible applications: cumulative fatalities as a function of time and the maximum required number of respiratory equipment as well as its time point. First, the time evolution of the number of cumulative fatalities D, plotted in Fig. 5 , can be obtained by summing daily number of deaths d, predicted by our model. In this figure, we rescaled all curves back to normal times so that the future course of cumulative deaths can be easily read-off. One can compute analytically that the date after which the new deaths per day have decreased to 1% of their maximum lies roughly 2 widths after the maximum of daily deaths, and the values, denoted by T η , for each country can be found in Fig. 4 (a). Already from visual inspection Fig. 5 suggests for Italy and Spain to plateau first, while France will have to face increasing number of fatalities considerably longer. It also anticipates the cumulative number of fatalities per million people over the entire course of the Covid-19 disease to be highest for France, Spain and Italy.