COVID-19 scenario modelling for the mitigation of capacity-dependent deaths in intensive care: computer simulation study

Richard M Wood; Christopher J McWilliams; Matthew J Thomas; Christopher P Bourdeaux; Christos Vasilakis

The model is applied to intensive care services at a major public hospital in England. Following a similar approach to Deasy et al (2020) , demand for intensive care admission is estimated through local interpretation of nationwide projections contained in Ferguson et al, 2020 (controlling for local population size, demographics and hospital catchment areasee Table 1 ). This is according to two scenarios, as presented in Ferguson et al (2020) . The first is effectively a "do nothing" involving no restrictions on movement, while the second involves "case isolation, home quarantine, and social distancing of those over 70" (Figure 1 ). Informed by publication of this report on 16 th March 2020, the UK Government implemented restrictions on movement equivalent to this latter strategy, effective as of 20 th March 2020. At the hospital there are typically 45 beds available for patients requiring intensive care (21 general and 24 cardiac). In the first instance, plans are in place for capacity to be increased to a maximum of 76 beds, through making use of operating theatres and other specialist bays (which have become available due to the cancellation of routine surgery). There remains some potential to increase this number further, should additional surge capacity be required (this is considered within the scenario analysis of Section 3).