Author: Naomie Salim; Weng Howe Chan; Shuhaimi Mansor; Nor Erne Nazira Bazin; Safiya Amaran; Ahmad Athif Mohd Faudzi; Anazida Zainal; Sharin Hazlin Huspi; Eric Jiun Hooi Khoo; Shaekh Mohammad Shithil
Title: COVID-19 epidemic in Malaysia: Impact of lock-down on infection dynamics Document date: 2020_4_11
ID: 652vzlq6_54
Snippet: In general, this graph illustrates the impact of MCO implementation which has started on18th March 2020. Based on the comparison with the actual reported cases up to 3rd April 2020, there is a total difference of 50k cases between actual and the projected number of cases by the first SIR model (non-MCO with 100% population -see Figure 15 ). On the other hand, the second SIR model (MCO with 100% population) shows a better prediction. A difference .....
Document: In general, this graph illustrates the impact of MCO implementation which has started on18th March 2020. Based on the comparison with the actual reported cases up to 3rd April 2020, there is a total difference of 50k cases between actual and the projected number of cases by the first SIR model (non-MCO with 100% population -see Figure 15 ). On the other hand, the second SIR model (MCO with 100% population) shows a better prediction. A difference of 951 is observed on 3rd of April between predicted and actual cases. In both SIR models (non-MCO and MCO with 100% population), the parameters β and γ are generated through constraint optimization. The estimated parameters (β and γ) for both SIR models are used to calculate the Basic Reproduction Number (R0) by dividing the β with γ. The parameters generated by both SIR models are shown in Table 1 . During the second phase of our experiment, we assume that social distancing is practised and 70% of the population adheres to the government order to avoid or minimize contact with the infected patients. Therefore, 30% of the total Malaysian population are assumed to be susceptible to be infected. Using 30% population as susceptible, we produce the following model shown in Figure 16
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