COVID-19 epidemic in Malaysia: Impact of lock-down on infection dynamics

Naomie Salim; Weng Howe Chan; Shuhaimi Mansor; Nor Erne Nazira Bazin; Safiya Amaran; Ahmad Athif Mohd Faudzi; Anazida Zainal; Sharin Hazlin Huspi; Eric Jiun Hooi Khoo; Shaekh Mohammad Shithil

In general, this graph illustrates the impact of MCO implementation which has started on18th March 2020. Based on the comparison with the actual reported cases up to 3rd April 2020, there is a total difference of 50k cases between actual and the projected number of cases by the first SIR model (non-MCO with 100% population -see Figure 15 ). On the other hand, the second SIR model (MCO with 100% population) shows a better prediction. A difference of 951 is observed on 3rd of April between predicted and actual cases. In both SIR models (non-MCO and MCO with 100% population), the parameters β and γ are generated through constraint optimization. The estimated parameters (β and γ) for both SIR models are used to calculate the Basic Reproduction Number (R0) by dividing the β with γ. The parameters generated by both SIR models are shown in Table 1 . During the second phase of our experiment, we assume that social distancing is practised and 70% of the population adheres to the government order to avoid or minimize contact with the infected patients. Therefore, 30% of the total Malaysian population are assumed to be susceptible to be infected. Using 30% population as susceptible, we produce the following model shown in Figure 16