Author: Naomie Salim; Weng Howe Chan; Shuhaimi Mansor; Nor Erne Nazira Bazin; Safiya Amaran; Ahmad Athif Mohd Faudzi; Anazida Zainal; Sharin Hazlin Huspi; Eric Jiun Hooi Khoo; Shaekh Mohammad Shithil
Title: COVID-19 epidemic in Malaysia: Impact of lock-down on infection dynamics Document date: 2020_4_11
ID: 652vzlq6_91
Snippet: When COVID-19 outbreak was declared as pandemic by WHO, necessary precaution is needed to control the outbreak and addresses the issues that arise. Movement or restricted control order is crucial to mitigate the total number of people infected by COVID-19 and to ensure our health facilities can cope with the number at any given time. In this paper we generate forecasts using a Curve Fitting Model with Probability Density Function and Skewness Eff.....
Document: When COVID-19 outbreak was declared as pandemic by WHO, necessary precaution is needed to control the outbreak and addresses the issues that arise. Movement or restricted control order is crucial to mitigate the total number of people infected by COVID-19 and to ensure our health facilities can cope with the number at any given time. In this paper we generate forecasts using a Curve Fitting Model with Probability Density Function and Skewness Effect, the SIR model, and a system dynamic model to predict the trends of COVID-19 cases in Malaysia. We estimated that the peak in terms of the number of infected people will occur between middle of April 2020 to end of May 2020, with total infected numbers varying between 5,000 persons (based on existing number of infected persons) to 2.6 million (based on the total population of Malaysia regarded as people susceptible to the infection). The varying numbers are due to assumptions we have made based on available data.
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