Author: Yi Li; Meng Liang; Xianhong Yin; Xiaoyu Liu; Meng Hao; Zixin Hu; Yi Wang; Li Jin
Title: COVID-19 Epidemic Outside China: 34 Founders and Exponential Growth Document date: 2020_3_3
ID: 7reqkx3h_31
Snippet: Based on this model, we estimated that there have been about 34 unobserved founder patients at the beginning of spread outside China. Our model suggests that the COVID-19 disease follows an approximate exponential growth model stably at the very beginning. The situation is dangerous as we expect 10 folds increases of patients every 19 days without strong intervention. We call on world-wide strong actions on public health referring to experiences .....
Document: Based on this model, we estimated that there have been about 34 unobserved founder patients at the beginning of spread outside China. Our model suggests that the COVID-19 disease follows an approximate exponential growth model stably at the very beginning. The situation is dangerous as we expect 10 folds increases of patients every 19 days without strong intervention. We call on world-wide strong actions on public health referring to experiences learnt from China and Singapore.
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