Author: Sebastian J. Schreiber; Ruian Ke; Claude Loverdo; Miran Park; Priyanna Ahsan; James O. Lloyd-Smith
Title: Cross-scale dynamics and the evolutionary emergence of infectious diseases Document date: 2016_7_29
ID: hain3be0_45
Snippet: Basic reproductive number of wild-type strain (R w ) much less than one Mutant spillover events hasten evolutionary emergence. When the mutant strain is circulating in the reservoir, the index case can begin with a mixed infection which invariably makes evolutionary emergence more likely (Fig 4C,D) . For short-term infections, spillover doses that contain low or high frequencies of mutants have a roughly equal impact on emergence, and the magnitu.....
Document: Basic reproductive number of wild-type strain (R w ) much less than one Mutant spillover events hasten evolutionary emergence. When the mutant strain is circulating in the reservoir, the index case can begin with a mixed infection which invariably makes evolutionary emergence more likely (Fig 4C,D) . For short-term infections, spillover doses that contain low or high frequencies of mutants have a roughly equal impact on emergence, and the magnitudes of these increases are relatively independent of the cross-scale reproductive number α (Fig 4C) . This arises because the initial production and transmission of the mutant strain is the primary constraint on evolutionary emergence for short-term infections with R m > 1 (black contours in Fig 2A,B) . Consequently, mutant spillover events of any size are sufficient to overcome this constraint.
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