Author: Sebastian J. Schreiber; Ruian Ke; Claude Loverdo; Miran Park; Priyanna Ahsan; James O. Lloyd-Smith
Title: Cross-scale dynamics and the evolutionary emergence of infectious diseases Document date: 2016_7_29
ID: hain3be0_8
Snippet: Population scale model. At the scale of the host population, the transmission dynamics are modeled using a multi-type branching process. Each infectious individual encounters a Poisson-distributed number of susceptible individuals at a rate of β individuals per day. Then, the number of contacts of an infected individual during the infectious period is Poisson distributed with mean βT . Each contact results in a successful transmission event wit.....
Document: Population scale model. At the scale of the host population, the transmission dynamics are modeled using a multi-type branching process. Each infectious individual encounters a Poisson-distributed number of susceptible individuals at a rate of β individuals per day. Then, the number of contacts of an infected individual during the infectious period is Poisson distributed with mean βT . Each contact results in a successful transmission event with probability p(E) where E is the effective viral load at the time t of transmission (see below). Similar to the deterministic model of Lythgoe et al. [65] , p(E) is an increasing function of E. Our main analyses assume that the transmission function p(E) is linear, but nonlinear transmission functions yield nearly identical results (Figs. Appendix-2 through 4).
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