Spatial Modelling of Covid-19 Confirmed Cases in Kalimantan, Indonesia: How Neighborhood Matters?

Putera, Muhammad Luthfi Setiarno Wahyunita Laili Yusup Febrianawati

The Covid-19 outbreak has hit all countries across the globe, including Indonesia, in which the impact is detrimental and costly. We investigated 14 determinants that could spatially influence Covid-19 cases in Central Kalimantan and South Kalimantan provinces in mid-2020 by using the Geographically Weighted Negative Binomial Regression (GWNBR) and Mixed Geographically Weighted Negative Binomial Regression (MGWNBR). This study conducted iterative Limited-memory Broyden-Fletcher-Goldfarb-Shanno with boundaries (L-BFGS-B) to utilize the numerical parameter estimation of MGWNBR. MGWNBR identified that the adjacent regions tend to group in 8 clusters containing the same significant determinants. Through MGWNBR, the comorbid prevalences (acute respiratory infection, pneumonia, and diabetes) were positively associated with the Covid-19 increasing cases in most regions. The unemployment rate and the number of health care facilities were negatively related to the increase of Covid-19 cases in some regions. MGWNBR was better than GWNBR in terms of AIC, deviance, and pseudo R-sq. The residual map also suggested that MGWNBR produced a more accurate projection than GWNBR. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of Walailak Journal of Science & Technology is the property of Walailak Journal of Science & Technology and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)