A simple arithmetic rationale for crushing the epidemic curve of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) instead of flattening it

Killeen, G. F.

Countries with ambitious strategies to "crush the curve" of their epidemic trajectories, to promptly eliminate SARS-CoV-2 transmission at national level, include China, Korea, Japan, Taiwan, New Zealand and Australia. In stark contrast, many of the European countries hit hardest over the last two months, including Italy, Spain, France, Ireland and the United Kingdom, currently appear content to merely "flatten the curve" of their epidemic trajectories so that transmission persists at rates their critical care services can cope with. Here is presented a simple set of arithmetic modelling analyses that explain why preferable crush the "curve strategies", to eliminate transmission within months, would require only a modest amount of additional containment effort when compared to "flatten the curve" strategies that allow epidemics to persist at a steady, supposedly manageable level for years, decades or even indefinitely.