SARS-CoV-2: An Empirical Investigation of Rose’s Population-based Logic

Bruckner, Tim; Das, Abhery; Singh, Parvati; Boden-Albala, Bernadette

Geoffrey Rose’s paper “Sick Individuals, Sick Populations” highlights the counterintuitive finding that the largest share of morbidity arises from populations engaging in low- to moderate-risk behavior. Scholars refer to this finding as the prevention paradox. We examine whether this logic applies to SARS-CoV-2 infected persons considered low to moderate risk. METHODS: We conducted a population-representative survey and sero-surveillance study for SARS-CoV-2 among adults in Orange County, California. Participants answered questions about health behaviors and provided a finger-pin-prick sample from 10 July to 16 August 2020. RESULTS: Of the 2979 adults, those reporting low- and moderate-risk behavior accounted for between 78% and 92% of SARS-CoV-2 infections. Asymptomatic individuals, as well as persons with low and moderate scores for self-reported likelihood of having had SARS-CoV-2, accounted for the majority of infections. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings support Rose’s logic, which encourages public health measures among persons who self-identify as unlikely to have SARS-CoV-2. See video abstract at, http://links.lww.com/EDE/B860.