Author: Sebastian J. Schreiber; Ruian Ke; Claude Loverdo; Miran Park; Priyanna Ahsan; James O. Lloyd-Smith
Title: Cross-scale dynamics and the evolutionary emergence of infectious diseases Document date: 2016_7_29
ID: hain3be0_38
Snippet: The dueling effects of transmission bottlenecks. Wider bottlenecks increase the likelihood of evolutionary emergence for pathogens with a short infectious period, but can hinder or facilitate evolutionary emergence of long-term infections (Fig 4A,B) . For short-term infections, evolutionary emergence is constrained primarily by the transmission of mutant virions by individuals initially infected with only the wild strain. Wider transmission bottl.....
Document: The dueling effects of transmission bottlenecks. Wider bottlenecks increase the likelihood of evolutionary emergence for pathogens with a short infectious period, but can hinder or facilitate evolutionary emergence of long-term infections (Fig 4A,B) . For short-term infections, evolutionary emergence is constrained primarily by the transmission of mutant virions by individuals initially infected with only the wild strain. Wider transmission bottlenecks alleviate this constraint, especially when the mutant strain is expected to increase rapidly within the infected population (α 1; Fig 4A) . When the mutant strain rises slowly in the infected host population (α slightly greater than one), the emergence probability is insensitive to the bottleneck size, regardless of infection duration.
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