Overcoming COVID-19 in West African countries: is herd immunity an option?

Ilesanmi, Olayinka Stephen; Akande, Abayomi; Afolabi, Aanuoluwapo Adeyimika

The coronavirus infection (COVID-19) to date has no vaccine or effective treatment. Herd immunity offers indirect protection to susceptible members of the population. If the acquired immunity of a community rises above 67%, then a gradual decline in the number of incident cases is recorded. How many deaths would have occurred in the West African countries by the time at least 67% of our people are infected with the present case fatality rate (CFR)? The objective of this study was to develop a forecast of the number of COVID-19 deaths that would be recorded to attain herd immunity for each country in West-Africa. We predicted the numbers of deaths using publicly available demographic and COVID-19 data. To attain herd immunity in West Africa 5.2 million COVID-19 deaths would have occurred assuming the CFR is maintained at the current rates in the region. Attention should be focused on strategies that would limit the spread of infection and protect the most vulnerable population groups while the race to develop an effective vaccine should be hastened.