Author: Sebastian J. Schreiber; Ruian Ke; Claude Loverdo; Miran Park; Priyanna Ahsan; James O. Lloyd-Smith
Title: Cross-scale dynamics and the evolutionary emergence of infectious diseases Document date: 2016_7_29
ID: hain3be0_29
Snippet: The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not peer-reviewed) is the author/funder. . https://doi.org/10.1101/066688 doi: bioRxiv preprint where S w is the mean size of a minor outbreak due to the wild type, I w→m is the mean number of individuals infected with a mutant virion by an individual initially only infected with the wild type, and P m is the probability an individual infected with one mutant virion causes a major outbreak. The .....
Document: The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not peer-reviewed) is the author/funder. . https://doi.org/10.1101/066688 doi: bioRxiv preprint where S w is the mean size of a minor outbreak due to the wild type, I w→m is the mean number of individuals infected with a mutant virion by an individual initially only infected with the wild type, and P m is the probability an individual infected with one mutant virion causes a major outbreak. The magnitude of the probability P m depends on the mutant reproductive number, R m , as in previous theory; however we show below that it is also determined strongly by a new quantity, the cross-scale reproductive number α of a mutant virion. Our approximation (4) , which can be viewed as a multiscale extension of earlier theory [12, 13] , highlights three key ingredients, in addition to R m > 1, for evolutionary emergence.
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